Historically, human migration has had a major impact on the spread of tuberculosis (TB). Ukraine and the EU in general are experiencing the largest migration crisis since the Second World War. As of 11/15/2022, 7.6 million Ukrainians remain abroad due to the Russo-Ukrainian war.

According to UN data, there are almost 5 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe. By the end of 2022, Poland granted the status of temporary protection to almost 1.5 million migrants, Germany granted more than 1 million and the Czech Republic approximately 450.000. More than 100.000 Ukrainians are registered in Italy, Spain, Great Britain, France, as well. At the time of mass migration, the incidence of tuberculosis in Ukraine was 44 cases per 100,000 population. One such a patient infects 10-15 people per year. The risk of developing active tuberculosis in an infected person is 5-10% throughout his life.

Above 90% of the Ukraininian adults are infected with TB. Unfavorable living conditions, close contact, mental and physical stress are what refugees from Ukraine face. The combination of before-mentioned risk factors and lack of access to medical services contributes to the transition of latent tuberculosis infection to active TB.

Cohort studies have shown a positive correlation between the number of migrants in the EU and the level of TB detection. It has also been established that a significant number of TB cases registered in Europe are among the population born outside of Europe (up to 70%).

Considering the migration statistics of Ukraine during the war, it is possible to predict a wave of morbidity and a significant increase of infected European population, that will have negative economic consequences for national governments.